What Predicts Whether Teen Cannabis Users Will Quit Within 5 Years? | Research

The takeaway

A 5-year follow-up of 339 teen marijuana users found that 42% had quit, with heavier baseline use, male gender, being unmarried, and having marijuana-using friends as the strongest predictors of continued use.

Read this if you are a young cannabis user or the parent of one and want to know what predicts quitting.

42% of teen marijuana users had quit within 5 years

What the researchers found

Among 339 teenage marijuana users at continuation high schools, 42% had quit marijuana use (no use in the past 30 days) at the 5-year follow-up. After controlling for all predictor variables, only four factors remained significant direct predictors of continued use: heavier baseline marijuana use, male gender, being unmarried as a young adult, and having friends who used marijuana (marginally significant).

Notably, social, attitude, intrapersonal, and violence-related variables did not independently predict quitting after accounting for these primary factors. The authors suggested that reducing psychological dependence and increasing social unacceptability of use across genders could increase quit attempts.

Why it matters

This study provided practical information about natural recovery from teen marijuana use. The finding that 42% quit within 5 years suggested that many teen users spontaneously reduce or stop use as they mature into adult social roles. The specific predictors identified could help target prevention and cessation interventions.

The numbers in context

339 teen marijuana users followed for 5 years. 42% had quit at follow-up. Four significant predictors: baseline use level, male gender, marital status, friends' use.

How the study worked

This was a 5-year prospective study of 339 teenage marijuana users from continuation high schools. Baseline measures included social, attitudinal, intrapersonal, violence-related, drug use, and demographic variables. Young adult social role variables were added as predictors. Three-step regression analysis identified independent predictors of quitting.

What this study cannot tell us

Continuation high school students may not represent typical teen marijuana users. Self-reported quitting was defined as no use in the past 30 days, which may not capture intermittent use or recent relapse. The 5-year follow-up may miss those who quit and relapsed or vice versa.

How to read the evidence

This is a prospective 5-year longitudinal study with regression analysis, providing moderate-level evidence for quit predictors.

When this study was published

Published in 2004. Cannabis use patterns among young people have changed with increasing legalization and potency.

The bigger picture

The finding that life transitions (marriage, changing social networks) influenced quitting aligns with the "maturing out" phenomenon observed across substance use. This suggests that supporting positive social development may be as important as direct drug intervention for teen cannabis users.

Questions still open

Does the pattern of predictors differ for occasional versus daily teen users? Would the same predictors apply in the era of legalized cannabis? How do these findings compare to quit predictors for other substances?

Common questions

Do most teens who use marijuana keep using it?

Not necessarily. In this study, 42% of teen marijuana users had quit within 5 years, suggesting that a substantial proportion naturally stop as they enter adulthood, particularly with life transitions like marriage and changes in social networks.

What helps teens quit marijuana?

The strongest predictors of continued use were heavier initial use, male gender, being unmarried, and having friends who used marijuana. This suggests that reducing use intensity, building social support for non-use, and facilitating positive life transitions may help teens quit.

Read the original research

Five-year prospective prediction of marijuana use cessation of youth at continuation high schools.

Addictive behaviors, 29(6), 1237-43

View on PubMed ↗

Citation

Sussman, Steve; Dent, Clyde W. (2004). Five-year prospective prediction of marijuana use cessation of youth at continuation high schools.. Addictive behaviors, 29(6), 1237-43.