What Predicts Whether Teen Cannabis Users Will Quit Within 5 Years?

A 5-year follow-up of 339 teen marijuana users found that 42% had quit, with heavier baseline use, male gender, being unmarried, and having marijuana-using friends as the strongest predictors of continued use.

Sussman, Steve et al.·Addictive behaviors·2004·Moderate EvidenceLongitudinal Cohort

Quitting (221)Youth (1291)Addiction (1380)

Quick Facts

Study Type

Longitudinal Cohort

Evidence

Moderate Evidence

Sample

Not reported

What This Study Found

Among 339 teenage marijuana users at continuation high schools, 42% had quit marijuana use (no use in the past 30 days) at the 5-year follow-up. After controlling for all predictor variables, only four factors remained significant direct predictors of continued use: heavier baseline marijuana use, male gender, being unmarried as a young adult, and having friends who used marijuana (marginally significant).

Notably, social, attitude, intrapersonal, and violence-related variables did not independently predict quitting after accounting for these primary factors. The authors suggested that reducing psychological dependence and increasing social unacceptability of use across genders could increase quit attempts.

Key Numbers

339 teen marijuana users followed for 5 years. 42% had quit at follow-up. Four significant predictors: baseline use level, male gender, marital status, friends' use.

How They Did This

This was a 5-year prospective study of 339 teenage marijuana users from continuation high schools. Baseline measures included social, attitudinal, intrapersonal, violence-related, drug use, and demographic variables. Young adult social role variables were added as predictors. Three-step regression analysis identified independent predictors of quitting.

Why This Research Matters

This study provided practical information about natural recovery from teen marijuana use. The finding that 42% quit within 5 years suggested that many teen users spontaneously reduce or stop use as they mature into adult social roles. The specific predictors identified could help target prevention and cessation interventions.

The Bigger Picture

The finding that life transitions (marriage, changing social networks) influenced quitting aligns with the "maturing out" phenomenon observed across substance use. This suggests that supporting positive social development may be as important as direct drug intervention for teen cannabis users.

What This Study Doesn't Tell Us

Continuation high school students may not represent typical teen marijuana users. Self-reported quitting was defined as no use in the past 30 days, which may not capture intermittent use or recent relapse. The 5-year follow-up may miss those who quit and relapsed or vice versa.

Questions This Raises

?Does the pattern of predictors differ for occasional versus daily teen users?
?Would the same predictors apply in the era of legalized cannabis?
?How do these findings compare to quit predictors for other substances?

Trust & Context

Key Stat:: 42% of teen marijuana users had quit within 5 years
Evidence Grade:: This is a prospective 5-year longitudinal study with regression analysis, providing moderate-level evidence for quit predictors.
Study Age:: Published in 2004. Cannabis use patterns among young people have changed with increasing legalization and potency.
Original Title:: Five-year prospective prediction of marijuana use cessation of youth at continuation high schools.
Published In:: Addictive behaviors, 29(6), 1237-43 (2004)
Authors:: Sussman, Steve(4), Dent, Clyde W(2)
Database ID:: RTHC-00179

Evidence Hierarchy

Meta-Analysis / Systematic Review

Randomized Controlled Trial

Cohort / Case-ControlFollows or compares groups over time

This study

Cross-Sectional / Observational

Case Report / Animal Study

Follows a group of people over time to track how outcomes develop.

What do these levels mean? →

Frequently Asked Questions

Do most teens who use marijuana keep using it?

Not necessarily. In this study, 42% of teen marijuana users had quit within 5 years, suggesting that a substantial proportion naturally stop as they enter adulthood, particularly with life transitions like marriage and changes in social networks.

What helps teens quit marijuana?

The strongest predictors of continued use were heavier initial use, male gender, being unmarried, and having friends who used marijuana. This suggests that reducing use intensity, building social support for non-use, and facilitating positive life transitions may help teens quit.

Cite This Study

RTHC-00179·https://rethinkthc.com/research/RTHC-00179

APA

Sussman, Steve; Dent, Clyde W. (2004). Five-year prospective prediction of marijuana use cessation of youth at continuation high schools.. Addictive behaviors, 29(6), 1237-43.

MLA

Sussman, Steve, et al. "Five-year prospective prediction of marijuana use cessation of youth at continuation high schools.." Addictive behaviors, 2004.

RethinkTHC

RethinkTHC Research Database. "Five-year prospective prediction of marijuana use cessation ..." RTHC-00179. Retrieved from https://rethinkthc.com/research/sussman-2004-fiveyear-prospective-prediction-of

Access the Original Study

View on PubMed

Study data sourced from PubMed, a service of the U.S. National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health.

This study breakdown was produced by the RethinkTHC research team. We analyze and report published research findings without making health recommendations. All interpretations are based solely on the published abstract and study data.

← Back to Research Database