Every Dollar of Medical Cannabis Sold in Canada Was Associated With a $0.74-0.84 Drop in Alcohol Sales
Analysis of Canadian sales data from 2011-2018 found that each dollar of legal medical cannabis sold was associated with a $0.74-$0.84 decrease in alcohol sales, suggesting medical cannabis acted as an economic substitute for alcohol.
Quick Facts
What This Study Found
Using fixed effect panel data regressions controlling for retail activity, alcohol prices, education levels, unemployment, and impaired driving penalties, each dollar of legal medical cannabis sold was associated with a $0.74-$0.84 decrease in alcohol sales. This implied that 2017-2018 alcohol sales were approximately 1.8% lower than they would have been without legal medical cannabis.
Key Numbers
Each $1 of MC sold associated with $0.74-$0.84 decrease in alcohol sales; 2017-2018 alcohol sales estimated 1.8% lower due to medical cannabis; data from 7 Canadian regions; January 2011 to September 2018
How They Did This
Fixed effect panel data linear regressions analyzing monthly per capita sales of alcohol and legal medical cannabis across seven Canadian regions from January 2011 to September 2018. Controlled for changing levels of retail activity, alcohol prices, tertiary education, unemployment, and impaired driving penalties.
Why This Research Matters
Alcohol causes far more health harm per user than cannabis. If cannabis legalization leads to meaningful substitution of alcohol for cannabis, the net public health impact could be positive even if cannabis use increases.
The Bigger Picture
The alcohol substitution effect has been one of the strongest potential public health arguments for cannabis legalization. This economic evidence from Canada supports the theory that legal cannabis can reduce alcohol consumption at a population level.
What This Study Doesn't Tell Us
Ecological study using aggregate sales data, not individual behavior. Cannot confirm that the same individuals substituted cannabis for alcohol. Pre-recreational legalization period (before October 2018) may not reflect current dynamics. Canadian market may differ from U.S. or other jurisdictions.
Questions This Raises
- ?Has recreational legalization changed the substitution pattern?
- ?Is the substitution effect stronger in certain demographics?
- ?Does substituting cannabis for alcohol actually produce health benefits at the individual level?
Trust & Context
- Key Stat:
- $0.74-$0.84 substitution per dollar
- Evidence Grade:
- Rigorous econometric analysis with multiple controls, but ecological design cannot confirm individual-level substitution
- Study Age:
- 2023 study
- Original Title:
- Relationships between sales of legal medical cannabis and alcohol in Canada.
- Published In:
- Health policy (Amsterdam, Netherlands), 128, 28-33 (2023)
- Authors:
- Armstrong, Michael J(5)
- Database ID:
- RTHC-04377
Evidence Hierarchy
Looks back at existing records to find patterns.
What do these levels mean? →Frequently Asked Questions
Does cannabis legalization reduce alcohol use?
This Canadian study found that medical cannabis sales were associated with reduced alcohol sales at a population level, suggesting substitution. Each dollar of cannabis sold corresponded with roughly $0.74-$0.84 less in alcohol sales.
Is substituting cannabis for alcohol healthier?
The study does not directly address health outcomes, but alcohol causes more health harm per user than cannabis according to most comparative risk assessments. If substitution occurs, the net health impact could be positive, though this needs more research.
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Cite This Study
https://rethinkthc.com/research/RTHC-04377APA
Armstrong, Michael J. (2023). Relationships between sales of legal medical cannabis and alcohol in Canada.. Health policy (Amsterdam, Netherlands), 128, 28-33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2022.11.012
MLA
Armstrong, Michael J. "Relationships between sales of legal medical cannabis and alcohol in Canada.." Health policy (Amsterdam, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2022.11.012
RethinkTHC
RethinkTHC Research Database. "Relationships between sales of legal medical cannabis and al..." RTHC-04377. Retrieved from https://rethinkthc.com/research/armstrong-2023-relationships-between-sales-of
Access the Original Study
Study data sourced from PubMed, a service of the U.S. National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health.
This study breakdown was produced by the RethinkTHC research team. We analyze and report published research findings without making health recommendations. All interpretations are based solely on the published abstract and study data.