Escalating Marijuana Use in the 5 Years Before Psychosis Onset Doubles the Rate of Developing Schizophrenia

Among 247 first-episode psychosis patients, daily marijuana use in the 5 years before onset doubled the rate of developing psychosis, independent of alcohol and tobacco use, with escalation of use being the strongest predictor.

Kelley, Mary E et al.·Schizophrenia research·2016·Moderate EvidenceLongitudinal Cohort
RTHC-01193Longitudinal CohortModerate Evidence2016RETHINKTHC RESEARCH DATABASErethinkthc.com/research

Quick Facts

Study Type
Longitudinal Cohort
Evidence
Moderate Evidence
Sample
N=210

What This Study Found

This study examined 247 people experiencing their first episode of psychosis to determine whether marijuana use in the preceding years was temporally linked to psychosis onset.

Escalation of marijuana use in the 5 years before psychosis onset was highly predictive. Going from no use to daily use during this period increased the hazard of psychosis onset by 3.6 times. Daily use at any point approximately doubled the rate of onset (HR = 2.2), even after controlling for alcohol and tobacco use.

Cumulative marijuana exposure was independently associated with an increased rate of psychosis onset, regardless of gender or family history. Importantly, the strength of the association was similar before and after the onset of prodromal symptoms, suggesting that escalating use is not simply a response to early psychotic experiences.

The study also found that early adult use (not just adolescent use) was associated with faster onset, challenging the focus exclusively on teen use.

Key Numbers

Escalation from no use to daily use: HR = 3.6 (p<0.0005). Daily use: HR = 2.2 (p<0.0005). Cumulative exposure associated with onset (p = 0.007). Independent of gender, family history, and concurrent alcohol/tobacco use. 247 first-episode patients from 6 psychiatric units.

How They Did This

Enrolled 247 first-episode psychosis patients from six psychiatric units. Collected detailed lifetime marijuana, alcohol, and tobacco use histories and ages at onset of prodrome and psychosis in 210 patients. Cox regression (survival analysis) quantified hazard ratios for premorbid use variables.

Why This Research Matters

This study provides some of the clearest temporal evidence linking marijuana escalation to psychosis onset. By demonstrating that the association exists both before and after prodromal symptom onset, and is independent of other substance use, it strengthens the case for a contributory role of marijuana in psychosis.

The Bigger Picture

This study adds an important temporal dimension to the cannabis-psychosis debate. Rather than just showing that people with psychosis used more marijuana, it demonstrates that escalating use precedes and predicts the timing of psychosis onset, making a stronger case for a contributory relationship.

What This Study Doesn't Tell Us

Retrospective recall of substance use history may be inaccurate, especially during prodromal periods when cognitive function is declining. No control group of cannabis users who did not develop psychosis. Cannot definitively establish causation. Cannabis potency was not measured.

Questions This Raises

  • ?Would reducing cannabis use during the premorbid period delay or prevent psychosis onset?
  • ?Is there a threshold of cumulative exposure below which the risk is minimal?
  • ?How does cannabis potency affect this relationship?

Trust & Context

Key Stat:
Going from no use to daily use tripled the rate of psychosis onset (HR = 3.6)
Evidence Grade:
Longitudinal design with survival analysis and control for confounders, but retrospective substance use data and no non-psychosis control group.
Study Age:
Published in 2016. Cannabis potency has continued to increase, which may affect the strength of these associations.
Original Title:
Marijuana use in the immediate 5-year premorbid period is associated with increased risk of onset of schizophrenia and related psychotic disorders.
Published In:
Schizophrenia research, 171(1-3), 62-7 (2016)
Database ID:
RTHC-01193

Evidence Hierarchy

Meta-Analysis / Systematic Review
Randomized Controlled Trial
Cohort / Case-ControlFollows or compares groups over time
This study
Cross-Sectional / Observational
Case Report / Animal Study

Follows a group of people over time to track how outcomes develop.

What do these levels mean? →

Frequently Asked Questions

Does marijuana use speed up the onset of schizophrenia?

In this study, daily marijuana use in the 5 years before psychosis doubled the rate of onset, and escalating from no use to daily use tripled it, independent of alcohol, tobacco, gender, and family history.

Is only teenage marijuana use risky for psychosis?

No. This study found that early adult marijuana use was also associated with faster psychosis onset, challenging the exclusive focus on adolescent use.

Read More on RethinkTHC

Cite This Study

RTHC-01193·https://rethinkthc.com/research/RTHC-01193

APA

Kelley, Mary E; Wan, Claire Ramsay; Broussard, Beth; Crisafio, Anthony; Cristofaro, Sarah; Johnson, Stephanie; Reed, Thomas A; Amar, Patrick; Kaslow, Nadine J; Walker, Elaine F; Compton, Michael T. (2016). Marijuana use in the immediate 5-year premorbid period is associated with increased risk of onset of schizophrenia and related psychotic disorders.. Schizophrenia research, 171(1-3), 62-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.schres.2016.01.015

MLA

Kelley, Mary E, et al. "Marijuana use in the immediate 5-year premorbid period is associated with increased risk of onset of schizophrenia and related psychotic disorders.." Schizophrenia research, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.schres.2016.01.015

RethinkTHC

RethinkTHC Research Database. "Marijuana use in the immediate 5-year premorbid period is as..." RTHC-01193. Retrieved from https://rethinkthc.com/research/kelley-2016-marijuana-use-in-the

Access the Original Study

Study data sourced from PubMed, a service of the U.S. National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health.

This study breakdown was produced by the RethinkTHC research team. We analyze and report published research findings without making health recommendations. All interpretations are based solely on the published abstract and study data.