Analysis of over 44 million legal cannabis purchases in Washington showed concentrates growing 146% in market share with triple the THC of flower, while consumers consistently paid more for higher-potency products.
Readers interested in cannabis market trends, pricing, and potency in legal states.
Concentrates averaged 68.7% THC versus 20.6% for flower, and grew 146% in market share
What the researchers found
Analyzing Washington State's cannabis traceability data from July 2014 to September 2016 (over 44 million purchases), the study revealed several market trends.
Traditional cannabis flower still dominated at 66.6% of spending, but extracts for inhalation (concentrates) grew by 145.8% in market share, reaching 21.2% of sales. The average THC level for extracts was 68.7%, more than triple that of flower (20.6%).
Consumers paid a premium for potency: for flower products, both THC (coefficient = 0.012) and CBD (coefficient = 0.017) were associated with statistically significant per-gram price increases. CBD commanded an even higher price premium than THC, despite CBD's much lower average concentrations in most products.
Quantity discounts were small but significant (elasticity = -0.06), meaning bulk buyers saved modestly per gram.
Why it matters
This is one of the most comprehensive analyses of a legal cannabis market ever conducted, covering over 44 million transactions. It provides hard data on what consumers actually buy, what they pay, and how the market is evolving. The rapid growth of high-potency concentrates is particularly relevant for public health, as these products deliver THC at levels far exceeding traditional flower.
The numbers in context
44,482,176 total purchases analyzed. 31,052,123 flower purchases after trimming outliers. Flower: 66.6% of spending, average THC 20.6%. Extracts: grew to 21.2% of spending, average THC 68.7%. THC premium: $0.012/gram per percentage point. CBD premium: $0.017/gram per percentage point. Quantity discount elasticity: -0.06.
How the study worked
Secondary analysis of Washington State's mandatory cannabis traceability system data. Descriptive statistics assessed product trends and potency. Hedonic regressions estimated how THC, CBD, and purchase quantity influenced flower pricing across 31 million flower purchases.
What this study cannot tell us
Washington State data may not represent other legal markets. The traceability system captures legal market transactions only; illegal market activity is not included. Product testing accuracy and consistency across labs is a known concern. The study period (2014-2016) covers the early years of legal sales, and the market has continued to evolve.
How to read the evidence
Strong evidence from comprehensive analysis of a state-mandated traceability system covering over 44 million transactions.
When this study was published
Published in 2017, using 2014-2016 data. Washington's cannabis market has continued to evolve.
The bigger picture
The data reveals a market trending toward higher potency. As extracts grow in market share and consumer willingness to pay more for higher THC drives product development, the average THC exposure per consumer is likely increasing. This has implications for public health research, which has largely studied lower-potency cannabis, and for regulatory approaches to potency limits.
Questions still open
- Should legal markets regulate maximum THC levels, especially for concentrates? Does the consumer premium for CBD-rich products reflect therapeutic demand or marketing influence? How does the shift toward concentrates affect health outcomes for regular users?
Common questions
How strong are cannabis concentrates compared to flower?
Do consumers pay more for stronger cannabis?
Read the original research
Variation in cannabis potency and prices in a newly legal market: evidence from 30 million cannabis sales in Washington state.
Addiction (Abingdon, England), 112(12), 2167-2177
Citation
Smart, Rosanna; Caulkins, Jonathan P; Kilmer, Beau; Davenport, Steven; Midgette, Greg. (2017). Variation in cannabis potency and prices in a newly legal market: evidence from 30 million cannabis sales in Washington state.. Addiction (Abingdon, England), 112(12), 2167-2177. https://doi.org/10.1111/add.13886
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