COVID Stay-at-Home Orders Worsened Mental Health, But Worsening Mental Health Reduced Cannabis Use

In a nationally representative study of 7,554 Americans, stay-at-home orders doubled the odds of moderate-to-severe depression, but worsening depression and anxiety was associated with less marijuana use, not more, contradicting the self-medication hypothesis.

Carney-Knisely, Geoffrey et al.·PloS one·2025·Strong EvidenceLongitudinal Cohort
RTHC-06161Longitudinal CohortStrong Evidence2025RETHINKTHC RESEARCH DATABASErethinkthc.com/research

Quick Facts

Study Type
Longitudinal Cohort
Evidence
Strong Evidence
Sample
N=7,554

What This Study Found

People under stay-at-home orders had 2.18 times the odds of moderate-to-severe depression. However, those with moderate-to-severe depression had 63% lower odds of marijuana use (OR 0.37). Within-person worsening of mental health was associated with 78% lower odds of marijuana use (OR 0.22). Depression and anxiety appeared to mediate the pathway from stay-at-home orders to reduced marijuana use.

Key Numbers

7,554 participants; 43,582 observations; SAH orders: OR 2.18 for moderate-severe depression (CI: 1.27-3.73); depression/anxiety: OR 0.37 for marijuana use (CI: 0.17-0.84); within-person mental health worsening: OR 0.22 for marijuana use (CI: 0.12-0.40); similar pattern for cigarettes (OR 0.29 for depression, OR 0.26 within-person)

How They Did This

Seven waves of the nationally representative Understanding America Study, a longitudinal web-based panel (N=7,554; 43,582 observations). Biweekly measurements of stay-at-home order status, PHQ-4 depression/anxiety scores, and past 7-day marijuana and cigarette use. Generalized estimating equations tested mediation models.

Why This Research Matters

The dominant narrative during COVID was that people were self-medicating with substances. This study challenges that assumption: worsening mental health during lockdowns actually predicted less marijuana and cigarette use, not more, suggesting the self-medication model may be oversimplified.

The Bigger Picture

The finding that worsening depression reduced rather than increased marijuana use challenges both the self-medication hypothesis and public health messaging about substance use during crises. People who become more depressed may withdraw from all activities, including substance use.

What This Study Doesn't Tell Us

Self-reported substance use and mental health, biweekly measurements may miss within-period variation, cannot determine if reduced use was due to access limitations during lockdowns rather than mental state, seven waves cover limited pandemic period, cannot rule out underreporting

Questions This Raises

  • ?Did reduced marijuana use during worsening depression reflect withdrawal from all activities (anhedonia) rather than a deliberate choice?
  • ?Did access to marijuana decrease during lockdowns independently of mental health?
  • ?Would longer follow-up reveal different patterns as the pandemic progressed?

Trust & Context

Key Stat:
Worsening depression during COVID was linked to 78% lower odds of marijuana use, not higher
Evidence Grade:
Large nationally representative longitudinal panel with repeated measurements and mediation analysis; strong design but self-reported measures
Study Age:
Published 2025
Original Title:
Depression and anxiety mediate the relationship between COVID-19 stay-at-home orders and tobacco and marijuana use.
Published In:
PloS one, 20(12), e0337996 (2025)
Database ID:
RTHC-06161

Evidence Hierarchy

Meta-Analysis / Systematic Review
Randomized Controlled Trial
Cohort / Case-ControlFollows or compares groups over time
This study
Cross-Sectional / Observational
Case Report / Animal Study

Follows a group of people over time to track how outcomes develop.

What do these levels mean? →

Frequently Asked Questions

Did people use more marijuana during COVID lockdowns?

Counterintuitively, this study found that people whose mental health worsened during stay-at-home orders actually used less marijuana, not more. Worsening depression was associated with 78% lower odds of marijuana use.

Does depression lead to more substance use?

Not in this study. The common assumption that worsening mental health drives self-medication with substances was contradicted: people with moderate-to-severe depression had 63% lower odds of marijuana use compared to those with normal-to-mild symptoms.

Read More on RethinkTHC

Cite This Study

RTHC-06161·https://rethinkthc.com/research/RTHC-06161

APA

Carney-Knisely, Geoffrey; Pek, Jolynn; Ferketich, Amy K; Padamsee, Tasleem J; Gur, Tamar; Singh, Parvati. (2025). Depression and anxiety mediate the relationship between COVID-19 stay-at-home orders and tobacco and marijuana use.. PloS one, 20(12), e0337996. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0337996

MLA

Carney-Knisely, Geoffrey, et al. "Depression and anxiety mediate the relationship between COVID-19 stay-at-home orders and tobacco and marijuana use.." PloS one, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0337996

RethinkTHC

RethinkTHC Research Database. "Depression and anxiety mediate the relationship between COVI..." RTHC-06161. Retrieved from https://rethinkthc.com/research/carney-knisely-2025-depression-and-anxiety-mediate

Access the Original Study

Study data sourced from PubMed, a service of the U.S. National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health.

This study breakdown was produced by the RethinkTHC research team. We analyze and report published research findings without making health recommendations. All interpretations are based solely on the published abstract and study data.