Each additional hour of daily social media use at age 12 was associated with higher odds of cannabis experimentation by age 14, with positive beliefs about cannabis mediating about 20% of the association.
Parents of adolescents, school-based prevention program designers, social media policy researchers.
Positive cannabis expectancies mediated ~20% of the social media-cannabis experimentation link
What the researchers found
Daily social media time at Year 2 (around age 12) was significantly associated with cannabis experimentation at Year 4 (around age 14). Positive cannabis expectancies mediated 19.8% and negative expectancies mediated 13.6% of the social media-cannabis use association, even after adjusting for friends' cannabis use.
Why it matters
With early adolescents spending increasing time on social media, understanding how digital media exposure shapes substance use attitudes and behaviors is critical for prevention. The mediation finding suggests that social media may influence cannabis initiation partly by shaping beliefs about its effects.
The numbers in context
n=7,691; mean age 12 at baseline; social media-cannabis association B=0.18 (95% CI 0.13-0.24, p<0.001); positive expectancies mediated 19.8%; negative expectancies mediated 13.6% of the association.
How the study worked
Longitudinal analysis of ABCD Study data (n=7,691, mean age 12 at Year 2), examining associations between daily social media time and cannabis use outcomes two years later, with mediation analysis testing whether cannabis expectancies at Year 3 explained the relationship.
What this study cannot tell us
Observational design cannot prove social media causes cannabis use. Self-reported social media time may be inaccurate. Cannot identify what specific social media content drives the association (cannabis-specific content, peer influence, or general risk-taking culture). Residual confounding from unmeasured family and peer factors.
How to read the evidence
Moderate: Large longitudinal sample from the well-designed ABCD Study with proper temporal ordering and mediation analysis, though observational design limits causal conclusions.
When this study was published
Published in 2025 using ABCD Study data from 2018-2020.
The bigger picture
This study connects two major public health concerns: youth social media use and early substance initiation. The mediation through expectancies suggests that cannabis content on social media platforms may shape adolescent beliefs before direct experimentation occurs.
Questions still open
- What types of social media content most strongly influence cannabis expectancies? Would platform-specific content moderation reduce early cannabis experimentation? Are there protective factors that buffer the social media-cannabis association?
Common questions
What are cannabis expectancies?
Does social media directly cause teens to try cannabis?
Read the original research
Cannabis expectancies mediate the association between social media use and cannabis experimentation in early adolescents: A prospective cohort study.
Drug and alcohol dependence, 277, 112947
Citation
Nagata, Jason M; Caffrey, Andrew; Nguyen, Nathan D; Nayak, Sahana; Frimpong, Isaac; Helmer, Christiane K; Ricklefs, Colbey; Al-Shoaibi, Abubakr A; Testa, Alexander; Brindis, Claire D; Santos, Glenn-Milo; Baker, Fiona C. (2025). Cannabis expectancies mediate the association between social media use and cannabis experimentation in early adolescents: A prospective cohort study.. Drug and alcohol dependence, 277, 112947. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2025.112947
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- Quitting Weed as a Teen or Young Adult
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