The Sharpest Jump in Cannabis Use Occurred Between Adolescence and Young Adulthood for Low-Risk Perceivers

A significant interaction between age group and perceived risk predicted cannabis use. The sharpest increase in cannabis use probability occurred between adolescents (12-17) and young adults (18-25) among those with no or low risk perception. This suggests that adolescents who perceive cannabis as low-risk are primed for a major usage increase once they reach young adulthood.

Secondary analysis of the 2021 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (N=58,034, ages 12+). Binary logistic regression with complex sampling examined the interaction between age group and perceived risk on past 30-day cannabis use.

Prevention programs that shape risk perception during adolescence could have outsized effects if they reach young people before the transition to adulthood, when low-risk perceiving adolescents appear most likely to start using cannabis.

As cannabis legalization expands and perceived risk continues declining among young people, this finding suggests a growing pool of adolescents with low-risk perceptions who will sharply increase their use upon reaching adulthood. Prevention efforts targeting risk perception in early adolescence may be the most effective intervention window.

Cross-sectional design cannot confirm that low risk perception causes later use, 2021 data from a single year, perceived risk and use measured simultaneously, cannot distinguish between accurate and inaccurate risk perceptions