Cannabis use and depression predicted which young Swiss men became unemployed and out of school

What the researchers found

This study tracked 4,758 young Swiss men in their early 20s to understand what leads to becoming "NEET" (Not in Education, Employment, or Training). At baseline, 6.1% were NEET; at follow-up, 7.4% were NEET, but only 1.4% were NEET at both time points, suggesting it was usually temporary.

The longitudinal analysis found that cannabis use, daily smoking, and depressive symptoms at baseline predicted later NEET status. But being NEET did not predict later increases in substance use or mental health problems. The causal direction appeared to go one way: substance use and mental health led to disengagement, not the reverse.

NEET youth differed from their peers only on substance use and depression, not on personality traits.

Why it matters

Understanding whether substance use drives disengagement from work and school, or whether disengagement drives substance use, has direct implications for where to target prevention efforts. These findings suggest intervening on cannabis use and mental health before young people drop out of productive roles.

The numbers in context

4,758 young Swiss men studied. 6.1% NEET at baseline, 7.4% at follow-up. Only 1.4% NEET at both time points. Cannabis use, daily smoking, and depression all predicted later NEET status.

How the study worked

Part of the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors, this study used a repeated-measures design with baseline and follow-up assessments. Researchers used cross-lagged panel models to test bidirectional relationships between NEET status, mental health, and substance use in 4,758 young Swiss men in their early 20s.

What this study cannot tell us

The sample included only young men from Switzerland, limiting generalizability to women and other cultural contexts. Self-reported substance use may undercount actual use. The NEET definition does not distinguish between voluntary and involuntary disengagement.

How to read the evidence

Longitudinal cohort study with nearly 5,000 participants and cross-lagged modeling to test causal direction.

When this study was published

Published in 2015 using data from Swiss military conscripts.

The bigger picture

Youth disengagement from education and employment is a concern across developed countries. This study adds evidence that substance use and mental health are upstream factors rather than consequences of being NEET, which supports early intervention approaches targeting cannabis use and depression in at-risk young people.

Questions still open

• Do these patterns hold for young women? Would treating depression and cannabis use disorder in this age group reduce NEET rates? Are there specific levels of cannabis use that cross a threshold into predicting disengagement?

Common questions

Read the original research

Not in Education, Employment, or Training status among young Swiss men. Longitudinal associations with mental health and substance use.

The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine, 56(2), 238-43

Citation

Baggio, Stéphanie; Iglesias, Katia; Deline, Stéphane; Studer, Joseph; Henchoz, Yves; Mohler-Kuo, Meichun; Gmel, Gerhard. (2015). Not in Education, Employment, or Training status among young Swiss men. Longitudinal associations with mental health and substance use.. The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine, 56(2), 238-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jadohealth.2014.09.006

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