Depression, hopelessness, and suicide attempts before age 10 predicted marijuana initiation by age 15 | Research

The takeaway

In the ABCD Study, children who experienced hopelessness, depression, or suicide attempts before ages 9-10 were significantly more likely to initiate marijuana use by ages 14-15, even after controlling for demographic and socioeconomic factors.

Child psychologists, substance use prevention researchers, school-based mental health providers

Emotional problems at age 9-10 predicted marijuana initiation at 14-15

What the researchers found

Baseline hopelessness, depression, and suicide attempts at ages 9-10 were all significant predictors of tobacco and marijuana use initiation at ages 14-15. These associations remained robust after adjusting for demographic factors, family characteristics, and neighborhood socioeconomic status, indicating independent effects of early emotional problems on adolescent substance use initiation.

Why it matters

This longitudinal evidence demonstrates that the seeds of adolescent marijuana use are planted years earlier in childhood emotional distress. Identifying and treating depression and hopelessness in elementary school-age children could be an upstream prevention strategy for adolescent substance use.

The numbers in context

ABCD Study participants; baseline ages 9-10; follow-up ages 14-15; hopelessness, depression, and suicide attempts all predicted marijuana initiation; effects robust after adjusting for demographics and SES

How the study worked

ABCD Study data with baseline emotional problems assessed at ages 9-10 through structured parent interviews. Substance use (tobacco and marijuana initiation) tracked to ages 14-15 using structured self-report. Structural equation modeling controlled for demographics, family, and neighborhood SES.

What this study cannot tell us

Parent-reported emotional problems at baseline may underestimate child experiences. Self-reported substance use at follow-up may also be underreported. SEM assumes causal ordering but other factors may explain both early emotional problems and later substance use. Cannabis initiation does not equal problematic use.

How to read the evidence

Large nationally representative longitudinal study with structured assessments and SEM provides moderate evidence of temporal sequence, though unmeasured confounders and measurement limitations remain.

When this study was published

2025 publication from the ongoing ABCD Study

The bigger picture

Substance use prevention typically targets adolescents, but these findings suggest the vulnerable window begins much earlier. Children showing signs of emotional distress in elementary school are already on a pathway toward substance use, making early childhood mental health intervention a substance use prevention strategy.

Questions still open

Would early mental health intervention for depressed children reduce marijuana initiation rates? Are specific types of emotional problems (hopelessness vs depression vs suicidality) more strongly predictive?

Common questions

Can childhood depression lead to teenage marijuana use?

This study found that children with depression, hopelessness, or suicide attempts before age 10 were more likely to start using marijuana by age 15. While this shows a predictive relationship, it cannot prove that treating childhood depression would prevent marijuana use.

Were family and economic factors ruled out?

The associations remained significant even after controlling for demographic factors, family characteristics, and neighborhood socioeconomic status, suggesting early emotional problems have independent effects beyond social and economic disadvantage.

Read the original research

Childhood Depression, Hopelessness, and Suicidal Attempt Predict Earlier Tobacco and Marijuana Use Initiation During Adolescence.

Open journal of medical sciences, 5(1), 18-31

View on PubMed ↗Publisher’s paper ↗

Citation

Assari, Shervin; Najand, Babak; Sheikhattari, Payam. (2025). Childhood Depression, Hopelessness, and Suicidal Attempt Predict Earlier Tobacco and Marijuana Use Initiation During Adolescence.. Open journal of medical sciences, 5(1), 18-31. https://doi.org/10.31586/ojms.2025.1181