Poor decision-making under known risk predicted escalating cannabis use in Hispanic adolescents | Research

The takeaway

In a 2-year study of 401 predominantly Hispanic adolescents, worse performance on a decision-making task with explicit risk predicted greater escalation in cannabis use and related problems.

Adolescent substance use researchers, prevention program developers, school psychologists, and neurocognitive development researchers.

Game of Dice Task performance predicted cannabis use escalation over 2 years (p=0.008)

What the researchers found

Baseline performance on the Game of Dice Task (explicit risk decision-making) predicted greater escalation in cannabis use frequency and cannabis-related problems over 2 years. Decision-making under ambiguous risk (Iowa Gambling Task) did not predict cannabis outcomes.

Why it matters

Understanding which cognitive abilities protect against or predict cannabis escalation in adolescence could inform targeted prevention programs, particularly in underrepresented Hispanic populations.

The numbers in context

401 adolescents (90% Hispanic), ages 14-17, five assessments over 2 years. GDT performance predicted cannabis use escalation (beta=0.200, p=0.008) and problem escalation (beta=0.388, p=0.035). IGT and Cups Task were not predictive.

How the study worked

Longitudinal study with five biannual assessments of 401 adolescents (90% Hispanic, ages 14-17 at baseline). Three decision-making tasks assessed (Iowa Gambling Task, Game of Dice Task, Cups Task). Latent growth curve modeling examined bidirectional associations.

What this study cannot tell us

Exploratory analyses requiring replication. Predominantly Hispanic sample in one geographic area. Cannabis use measures relied on self-report. The distinction between ambiguous and explicit risk tasks, while theoretically meaningful, may reflect other cognitive differences.

How to read the evidence

Longitudinal design with validated cognitive measures and repeated assessments. Exploratory analysis and single-population sample limit generalizability.

When this study was published

Published 2023.

The bigger picture

Adolescent decision-making develops throughout the teen years. If specific cognitive abilities predict cannabis escalation, prevention programs could incorporate decision-making skill building as a protective factor.

Questions still open

Would decision-making training reduce cannabis escalation in at-risk adolescents? Do these cognitive-cannabis associations hold across different racial/ethnic groups?

Common questions

Can you predict which teens will increase cannabis use?

This study found that teens who performed worse on a decision-making task involving known probabilities (the Game of Dice Task) were more likely to increase cannabis use and develop cannabis-related problems over 2 years. However, this is exploratory and needs replication.

What is the difference between ambiguous and explicit risk?

Ambiguous risk (like the Iowa Gambling Task) involves learning probabilities through trial and error. Explicit risk (like the Game of Dice Task) provides clear probability information upfront. This study found only explicit risk decision-making predicted cannabis escalation, suggesting different cognitive processes are involved.

Read the original research

An exploratory follow-up study of cannabis use and decision-making under various risk conditions within adolescence.

Neuropsychology, 37(5), 544-556

View on PubMed ↗Publisher’s paper ↗

Citation

Thompson, Erin L; Adams, Ashley R; Pacheco-Colón, Ileana; Lopez-Quintero, Catalina; Limia, Jorge M; Pulido, William; Granja, Karen; Paula, Dayana C; Gonzalez, Ingrid; Ross, J Megan; Duperrouzel, Jacqueline C; Hawes, Samuel W; Gonzalez, Raul. (2023). An exploratory follow-up study of cannabis use and decision-making under various risk conditions within adolescence.. Neuropsychology, 37(5), 544-556. https://doi.org/10.1037/neu0000897