8% of Norwegian students who've never used cannabis said they would try it if decriminalized, and 40% of current users said they'd increase use — providing concrete projections for policy planning.
Drug policy researchers, Norwegian policymakers, public health planners, and jurisdictions considering cannabis policy reform
What the researchers found
Among 3,490 Norwegian students, 8% of never-users reported willingness to initiate cannabis if decriminalized and 22.3% were unsure; 40.3% of users would increase use; projections suggest 12,000 new users and 15,400 more frequent users nationally.
Why it matters
This provides policymakers with concrete numbers for planning — instead of debating whether decriminalization increases use, countries can estimate how many new and escalating users to expect.
The numbers in context
3,490 students; 20.3% lifetime use (38,200 nationally); 8% of non-users willing to initiate; 40.3% of users willing to increase; projections: up to 12,000 new users, 15,400 more frequent users.
How the study worked
Nationally representative survey of 3,490 Norwegian high school students asking about cannabis use and willingness to use under hypothetical decriminalization, scaled to census data with multiple projection scenarios and multinomial regression.
What this study cannot tell us
Stated willingness may not predict actual behavior; social desirability may bias responses in either direction; hypothetical scenarios don't capture real-world market dynamics or social norm shifts.
How to read the evidence
Nationally representative survey with multiple projection scenarios and clear methodology, though stated willingness may not match actual behavior.
When this study was published
Published in 2026, directly relevant to Norway's ongoing drug policy reform debate.
The bigger picture
The 'willingness to use' methodology is a practical public health tool that any jurisdiction considering policy change could replicate — providing evidence-based projections rather than speculation.
Questions still open
- How accurately does stated willingness predict actual behavior change? Would the 22.3% 'unsure' group ultimately initiate use, and at what rate?
Common questions
Would decriminalization lead more teens to try cannabis?
Would current users increase their consumption?
Read the original research
The Role of Self-Reported Willingness to Use Drugs in Public Health Research: Population-Level Projections of Adolescents' Decriminalised Cannabis Use and Associated Risk Profiles.
Drug and alcohol review, 45(1), e70061
Citation
Burdzovic Andreas, Jasmina; Bretteville-Jensen, Anne Line. (2026). The Role of Self-Reported Willingness to Use Drugs in Public Health Research: Population-Level Projections of Adolescents' Decriminalised Cannabis Use and Associated Risk Profiles.. Drug and alcohol review, 45(1), e70061. https://doi.org/10.1111/dar.70061