Modeling predicts cannabis decriminalization in Sweden would cause an immediate spike in reported use, but while experimental use would stabilize, regular use could keep rising — potentially indicating growing dependence.
Drug policy researchers, Swedish policymakers, public health officials, and anyone interested in cannabis legalization outcomes
What the researchers found
Multilevel meta-regression using 12 countries predicted decriminalization would increase both past-12-month and past-30-day cannabis use in Sweden immediately, with experimental use stabilizing but regular use continuing to climb.
Why it matters
Sweden's debate over drug policy reform needs evidence-based predictions — this model distinguishes between experimental use (which stabilizes) and regular use (which may indicate growing dependence), a crucial policy distinction.
The numbers in context
Data from 25 countries (12 with both GDPI and Hofstede scores); predicted immediate increase in both 12-month and 30-day use; 12-month use gap narrows over time while 30-day use gap widens.
How the study worked
Cross-national multilevel meta-regression model using jurisdiction-level self-reported cannabis use data from 12 countries and 4 US states to predict prevalence changes following hypothetical decriminalization.
What this study cannot tell us
Predictions based on other countries' experiences may not account for Sweden's unique cultural attitudes; self-report data may reflect disclosure willingness rather than actual use changes; model assumes comparable policy implementation.
How to read the evidence
Novel multilevel meta-regression approach with international data, but predictions are inherently uncertain and depend on comparability of national contexts.
When this study was published
Published in 2026 using 2021 baseline data, relevant to Sweden's ongoing drug policy debate.
The bigger picture
The divergence between experimental and regular use trends after decriminalization suggests that while curiosity-driven use levels off, the pool of dependent users may grow — a pattern policymakers should anticipate.
Questions still open
- How much of the initial increase reflects genuine new use versus increased willingness to report? What complementary harm reduction policies could mitigate the projected rise in regular use?
Common questions
Would decriminalization increase cannabis use?
Does the initial spike represent real new users?
Read the original research
Expected population prevalence following decriminalization of recreational use of cannabis in Sweden.
Journal of cannabis research, 8(1)
Citation
Andersson, Filip; Ramstedt, Mats; Thiesmeier, Robert; Magnusson, Cecilia; Orsini, Nicola; Galanti, Maria Rosaria. (2026). Expected population prevalence following decriminalization of recreational use of cannabis in Sweden.. Journal of cannabis research, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s42238-026-00405-z