An analysis of drug seizures across five US regions found that marijuana and methamphetamine seizures initially dropped at the start of COVID-19 but rebounded sharply, exceeding pre-pandemic levels by August 2020.
Readers interested in how the pandemic affected drug markets and what seizure trends reveal about cannabis supply and demand patterns.
Marijuana seizures exceeded pre-COVID highs
What the researchers found
Marijuana seizures decreased significantly through April 2020, then increased significantly through September 2020, peaking in August 2020 above pre-pandemic highs. Both the number and weight of marijuana seized exceeded pre-COVID levels. Fentanyl seizures increased overall without a COVID dip. No significant changes were detected for cocaine or heroin.
Why it matters
Drug seizures serve as a proxy for drug availability. The rebound in marijuana seizures above pre-pandemic levels suggests supply chains adapted quickly to pandemic disruptions, while fentanyl's uninterrupted increase signals ongoing escalation of that crisis.
The numbers in context
Marijuana seizure decrease through April 2020 (β=-0.03, p=0.005); rebound through September (β=0.10, p=0.028); marijuana weight increase (β=0.40, p=0.001); fentanyl steady increase (β=0.05, p<0.001)
How the study worked
Joinpoint regression analysis of drug seizure trends from March 2019 through September 2020 across five High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas: Washington/Baltimore, Chicago, Ohio, New Mexico, and North Florida. Examined number and total weight of seizures.
What this study cannot tell us
Seizure data may reflect law enforcement activity levels rather than actual drug availability. Five regions may not represent national trends. Cannot directly measure consumption or use patterns.
How to read the evidence
Observational analysis of administrative seizure data with appropriate statistical methods, but seizures are an indirect measure of drug use.
When this study was published
Published in 2021 covering March 2019-September 2020; pandemic-era drug trends have continued to evolve.
The bigger picture
The divergent patterns across substances suggest different supply chain vulnerabilities. Marijuana and methamphetamine markets were temporarily disrupted by pandemic restrictions, while fentanyl supply appeared resilient. The marijuana rebound above baseline raises questions about whether pandemic-related stress increased demand.
Questions still open
- Did the surge in marijuana seizures reflect increased use, increased supply, or changes in law enforcement patterns? How did legalization status in different states affect these trends?
Common questions
Did people use more marijuana during COVID?
Why did fentanyl seizures not drop during COVID?
Read the original research
Shifts in drug seizures in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Drug and alcohol dependence, 221, 108580
Citation
Palamar, Joseph J; Le, Austin; Carr, Thomas H; Cottler, Linda B. (2021). Shifts in drug seizures in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.. Drug and alcohol dependence, 221, 108580. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2021.108580