A key set of adolescent and early adulthood risk factors predicted problematic substance use in established adulthood across two independent samples.
Prevention scientists, school counselors, parents, adolescent health providers, and substance use researchers.
2 samples, same resultRisk factor predictions replicated across two independent longitudinal samples
What the researchers found
Adolescent risk factors including externalizing behavior, peer substance use, and early substance initiation predicted problematic alcohol, cannabis, and other substance use in adulthood, with findings replicated across two independent longitudinal samples.
Why it matters
Identifying which adolescent risk factors reliably predict adult substance problems can help target prevention efforts more effectively and intervene before patterns become entrenched.
The numbers in context
Two independent samples were used: the Child Development Project (n=585; 48% girls; 81% White, 17% Black) and a second replication sample, tracked from adolescence through established adulthood.
How the study worked
Longitudinal study examining predictive relationships between adolescent risk factors and adult substance use problems across two independent samples.
Who was studied
Two independent longitudinal samples tracked from adolescence through established adulthood (primary sample: n=585).
What this study cannot tell us
Predominantly White sample in primary cohort limits generalizability; self-reported substance use; attrition over long follow-up periods may introduce bias.
How to read the evidence
Longitudinal design with replication across independent samples provides strong evidence for predictive relationships.
When this study was published
Recent analysis of long-running longitudinal cohorts.
The bigger picture
This study strengthens the evidence base for early prevention by demonstrating that identifiable adolescent risk factors have predictive validity for adult substance problems across substances and across samples.
Replication
Strong replication across two independent samples increases confidence in findings.
Funding
Not specified
Conflicts of interest
Not specified
Questions still open
- Which risk factors are most modifiable through intervention?
- Do the same risk factors predict cannabis vs alcohol problems equally?
- How do protective factors interact with these risk factors?
Read the original research
Predictors of problematic adult alcohol, cannabis, and other substance use: A longitudinal study of two samples.
Development and psychopathology, 35(4), 2028-2043
Citation
Lansford, Jennifer E; Goulter, Natalie; Godwin, Jennifer; McMahon, Robert J; Dodge, Kenneth A; Crowley, Max; Pettit, Gregory S; Bates, John E; Lochman, John E. (2023). Predictors of problematic adult alcohol, cannabis, and other substance use: A longitudinal study of two samples.. Development and psychopathology, 35(4), 2028-2043. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954579422000670