Smarter Kids Try Cannabis Earlier — But Positive Expectations Explain Why
Higher general cognitive ability at ages 9-10 predicted cannabis use by ages 13-14, but 73% of this effect was explained by developing more positive expectations about cannabis — suggesting expectancy-based prevention could be highly effective.
Quick Facts
What This Study Found
Higher general ability at ages 9-10 was associated with cannabis initiation by 13-14 (OR=1.23), with positive cannabis expectancies mediating 72.6% of the effect (p=0.003). Better visuospatial reasoning was protective (OR=0.83). Positive alcohol expectancies mediated 36.3% of the general ability-alcohol use association.
Key Numbers
N=7,776; general ability→cannabis OR=1.23; 72.6% mediated by positive expectancies (p=0.003); -10.2% mediated by negative expectancies (p=0.04); visuospatial reasoning protective OR=0.83; positive alcohol expectancy mediated 36.3%
How They Did This
Prospective longitudinal analysis of 7,776 ABCD Study participants enrolled at ages 9-10 (2016-2018) through ages 13-14, examining how pre-adolescent neurocognitive factors predict substance use initiation through expectancy mediation models.
Why This Research Matters
This counterintuitive finding — that cognitive ability predicts cannabis use — is almost entirely explained by positive expectancies, meaning prevention programs that challenge positive cannabis beliefs could be targeted and effective.
The Bigger Picture
Prevention programs should not just target 'at-risk' youth with behavioral problems — cognitively capable youth who develop positive cannabis expectations are also on a path toward early use.
What This Study Doesn't Tell Us
ABCD Study cohort may not represent all US youth; expectancies measured concurrently with some substance use; mediation models assume temporal ordering; cannot fully separate curiosity from actual use; cannabis use by 13-14 is relatively uncommon.
Questions This Raises
- ?How do positive cannabis expectancies form in pre-adolescents?
- ?Would media literacy programs reduce positive expectancy development?
- ?Does the visuospatial reasoning protective effect reflect better decision-making capacity?
Trust & Context
- Key Stat:
- Evidence Grade:
- Large prospective ABCD Study cohort with validated neurocognitive measures and sophisticated mediation analysis, providing strong evidence for the expectancy pathway.
- Study Age:
- Published 2026; uses ABCD Study data from 2016-2022.
- Original Title:
- Youth cannabis and alcohol use expectancies mediate associations between pre-adolescent cognitive function and subsequent use initiation.
- Published In:
- Addictive behaviors, 173, 108533 (2026)
- Authors:
- Jones, Stephanie K, Tomko, Rachel, Ramer, Nolan, Wolf, Bethany J
- Database ID:
- RTHC-08368
Evidence Hierarchy
Frequently Asked Questions
Are smarter kids more likely to try cannabis?
Somewhat — higher general cognitive ability at ages 9-10 predicted cannabis use by 13-14, but this was almost entirely (73%) explained by these children developing more positive expectations about cannabis, not by intelligence itself.
How can we prevent early cannabis use?
This study suggests targeting positive cannabis expectations is key — developmentally appropriate programs that build negative expectations about cannabis and challenge positive ones could prevent up to 73% of the cognitive ability-linked risk for early use.
Read More on RethinkTHC
Cite This Study
https://rethinkthc.com/research/RTHC-08368APA
Jones, Stephanie K; Tomko, Rachel; Ramer, Nolan; Wolf, Bethany J. (2026). Youth cannabis and alcohol use expectancies mediate associations between pre-adolescent cognitive function and subsequent use initiation.. Addictive behaviors, 173, 108533. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2025.108533
MLA
Jones, Stephanie K, et al. "Youth cannabis and alcohol use expectancies mediate associations between pre-adolescent cognitive function and subsequent use initiation.." Addictive behaviors, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2025.108533
RethinkTHC
RethinkTHC Research Database. "Youth cannabis and alcohol use expectancies mediate associat..." RTHC-08368. Retrieved from https://rethinkthc.com/research/jones-2026-youth-cannabis-and-alcohol
Access the Original Study
Study data sourced from PubMed, a service of the U.S. National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health.
This study breakdown was produced by the RethinkTHC research team. We analyze and report published research findings without making health recommendations. All interpretations are based solely on the published abstract and study data.