Hypothetical cannabis purchase decisions closely matched actual purchasing and smoking behavior in a lab setting, validating the widely used Marijuana Purchase Task as a research tool.
Cannabis researchers, behavioral economists, substance use clinicians using demand measures, and research methodologists
What the researchers found
Hypothetical and actual cannabis purchase task performance showed high correlations (r=0.45-0.81), though participants were willing to pay more and showed less price sensitivity when purchases were real; self-reported anticipated consumption predicted 66% of actual smoking variance.
Why it matters
The Marijuana Purchase Task is used extensively in cannabis research — confirming that hypothetical responses predict real behavior validates years of prior findings built on this tool.
The numbers in context
92 participants (81 with non-zero trials); price-level correlations r=0.45-0.81; index correlations r=0.46-0.81; anticipated vs actual consumption R²=0.66 (p<0.001); actual MPT showed higher Omax/Pmax (d=0.47-0.51).
How the study worked
Laboratory cannabis self-administration study with 92 twice-weekly cannabis users completing both hypothetical and actual Marijuana Purchase Tasks, with one random trial actualized for smoking during a 1-hour session.
What this study cannot tell us
Laboratory setting differs from real-world purchasing; participants were regular users (≥2x/week) so may not generalize to occasional users; single session doesn't capture longitudinal demand patterns.
How to read the evidence
Well-designed laboratory validation study with both hypothetical and actualized conditions, though limited to regular users in a controlled setting.
When this study was published
Published in 2026, providing critical methodological validation for a widely used cannabis research instrument.
The bigger picture
Validating research tools matters — if hypothetical measures didn't predict real behavior, a large body of cannabis demand research would be unreliable. This study confirms the field's methods are sound.
Questions still open
- Why are people willing to pay slightly more when purchases are real? Could modified purchase tasks better account for the hypothetical-real gap?
Common questions
Can researchers trust hypothetical cannabis surveys?
Do people accurately predict how much cannabis they'll use?
Read the original research
Is toke cheap? Correspondence between cannabis demand and purchase in the laboratory.
Addiction (Abingdon, England)
Citation
Aston, Elizabeth R; Berey, Benjamin L; Amlung, Michael; Swift, Robert; MacKillop, James; Metrik, Jane. (2026). Is toke cheap? Correspondence between cannabis demand and purchase in the laboratory.. Addiction (Abingdon, England). https://doi.org/10.1111/add.70282